The Refusal to Admit Defeat

I cannot think of another instance in American history where one individual’s psychological quirk has had so great an impact on the nation as in the case of Donald Trump—and that “quirk” is that he CANNOT ACCEPT DEFEAT.

It was not entirely clear how we should understand Trump’s refusal to accept that he had lost the 2020 election, quite clearly as was demonstrated over and over again. Many have said he “knew” he’d lost – various aides had told him – but was simply unwilling to surrender power. But I came to think that it was so intolerable to him to be the “loser” that he eventually persuaded himself that the election had been stolen from him.

But whatever was going on, he became the first losing presidential candidate in our history to refuse to accept the adverse result, and told his followers that the result was a Lie.

And that refusal dealt a devastating blow to American democracy, with tens of millions of Trump’s followers losing trust in the election process, and feeling aggrieved rather than respecting the constitutional process. And it undermined the functioning of our system to convince all those American citizens that the winner of the election – Joe Biden – was not a duly elected American President but was, rather, a thief who’d wronged Trump’s supporters.

Now we are witnessing a second instance of Trump’s refusal to accept defeat—and once again, that refusal is producing harmful consequences. This time, the damage is not only to the United States but to the economic well-being of people across the globe: I’m talking about the war-of-choice he launched against Iran, and the resulting shortage of oil as the Iranians choke off the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil normally passes.

For the world is being compelled to draw down its limited stored supplies. As those supplies are depleted while demand remains high, prices must rise until demand falls to match the reduced supply—and that reduction in demand means a weakening of the world’s economies.

The longer this continues, the worse the economic damage.

The consensus among the best analysts I’ve read is that the resolution of this conflict will require Trump to agree to terms that look like defeat—because, as they see it, it has been clear for a while that Trump has already lost this war.

Trump’s poorly thought-out decision to wage this war has given the Iranians the upper hand. America’s superb military hardware cannot disable the Iranians’ ability to use cheap weapons to continue to hold the global economy hostage. And the Iranian regime can maintain its hold on power despite whatever pain the U.S. inflicts.

It has become clear to the experts that, when all this is over, Iran will be in a stronger position and the United States in a weaker one— a significant geopolitical defeat in Trump’s unnecessary war of choice.

That would be a hard pill for any leader to swallow—to be responsible for such a blunder with catastrophic consequences: a global energy shortage, rising prices, possible recession, and lives lost across the region. To choose that course and have nothing to show for it at the end.

But the man who made himself the first loser of a presidential election not to respect the result was not just “any leader” when it comes to swallowing the humiliation of having put yourself out there to enhance one’s dominance and instead come out on the losing end, rejected by the electorate in 2020 and effectively having to submit to some demands by the people one sought to bomb into oblivion or submission.

His defeat was sealed as soon as the Iranians did what American war-planners have foreseen for years: closing the Strait of Hormuz, like a hand around the throat of the global economy because of all the vital oil and other materials that the nations of the world depend on to maintain their economic health.

The sooner the Strait gets opened, the sooner the economic damage can be reduced, and the sooner the material well-being of human beings – from Americans being able to afford gas to European airlines avoiding bankruptcy to preventing a broader economic slowdown worldwide – can be rescued from the injurious economic effects of this war.

But if time is on the Iranians’ side, as the experts believe, letting more time go by just makes the costs higher—and because accepting the inevitable would mean acknowledging defeat, Trump’s refusal to admit defeat is what keeps those costs rising.

So the crucial blockade at this moment is not at the Strait of Hormuz, but in the psychology of the American president, who has shown himself incapable of acknowledging a reality that makes him a “loser.” He still won’t admit that Biden beat him fair and square in 2020, and one can only wonder how long he will prolong this economically damaging conflict in order to avoid admitting that he got beat.

How humiliating for him – I can’t think of any previous American president who has blown it so disgracefully — and humiliation seems to be Trump’s kryptonite.

His losing power to his enemies -— Biden, the Iranians -— is simply intolerable.

Once again, the nation is paying bigly for this “psychological quirk” of Trump’s, that even when the whole world sees he’s been defeated, he cannot acknowledge it.